Building decarbonization: decision-making and real estate market responses
This project investigates how trade wars and geopolitical tensions are reshaping Asia’s urban and environmental geography through major shifts in global value chains. As production relocates from China to emerging manufacturing hubs across South and Southeast Asia, cities are experiencing rapid transformation with complex economic and environmental implications.
The first part of the analysis focuses on China, where declining export activity and foreign investment have triggered structural adjustments in cities historically tied to global manufacturing. These changes are reshaping local employment patterns, income distribution, and environmental outcomes, revealing early signs of regional divergence within China’s industrial landscape.
The second layer centers on Vietnam, which has become one of the primary beneficiaries of the U.S.–China trade war. Using high-resolution satellite and firm-level data, the research finds that industrial relocation has accelerated urban and economic growth while simultaneously promoting greener energy use and cleaner production practices in certain regions.
Extending the scope to other countries—including Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Cambodia, Bangladesh, and India—the project explores a more nuanced pattern of transformation. In these contexts, industrial expansion generates new opportunities for growth and inclusion but also brings challenges related to air pollution, carbon emissions, and urban livability. Combining grid-level environmental data with measures of economic activity and well-being, the analysis assesses how these trade-offs vary across cities and how governance capacity and infrastructure investment mediate outcomes.
Together, these findings reveal how the reorganization of production and trade is redefining economic geography in Asia, shifting the balance of competitiveness, environmental sustainability, and urban quality of life. The project aims to inform policies that foster inclusive, resilient, and climate-conscious development amid global economic realignment.